Hal Varian Senior Economist at Google

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The 2020 date may be a bit optimistic, but I am confident that it will happen. What do you have in your wallet right now? Identification, payment, personal items . All of these things will easily fit on your mobile device, they will inevitably end up there. But it may take some time. In general, it is generally accepted that two-factor authentication (secret information + physical device) is better than one-factor authentication, and it is only natural that smartphones will play a more important role.

John Smart, Founder and President, Acceleration Studies Foundation

Corporations will happily squeeze money out of older consumers with nursing homes email database exorbitant check and card processing fees, as they do today. They will try to keep these systems insecure for as long as possible, because that allows insurance companies to make a ton of money from identity theft insurance, etc.

Rob Scott, Nokia

The participants (and those who want to be participants) in the value chain of payments have been and will remain the main obstacles to the spread of the new payment system. Operators will continue to try to wedge themselves into the process on the most favorable terms for themselves, rather than accepting the razor-thin margins and the fate of simple providers of services to the masses. Firms processing transactions will continue to claim that they create value, although in fact they do not. Banks, if they are lucky, will be forced to perform their original functions again, leaving the mysterious and exotic financial instruments to institutions like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, etc., which for this reason have long ceased to be called “banks”.

Pete Cranston, an IT and communications consultant at Oxford

Looking at the niche M-PESA has occupied in Kenya , conquering all social classes and age groups, I am convinced that people will still switch to a new system of electronic or mobile transactions, they will be constantly pushed to do so by commercial interests.

Jerry Mahalski, Founder, Relationship Economy Expedition and Sociate

The bigger question for me is whether the dollar will remain the pillar of civilization, and whether most transactions will be denominated in fiat at all. Two factors are emerging that could drive change. First , the global monetary system, always fragile, is now more precarious than ever. People who have worked hard all their lives are seeing their pensions go to waste, their savings eroded, while a tiny group of the richest people make even more money and pay no taxes at all. That is a bad formula. Second , it will eventually be incredibly easy to create any local currency without tying it to any fiat currency at all, thus freeing it from the vagaries of global financial markets, such as inflation and deflation. Ubiquitous automation will make this possible.